Predictions 2011

I really should finish up my predictions before January comes to an end.  

What does David Miscavige predict?  Well, several years ago, he promised, to wild applause, that he would “open 70 new Ideal Orgs” that year.  That didn’t happen.  It would have required Miscavige to open up “his” church accounts and pay for it — everyone knows that wouldn’t happen.

Last year, as I recall, he promised to open up an Advanced Org/Saint Hill organization on “every continent”.  Tumultuous applause.  Didn’t happen.  Not even one new AOSH was established.  Again, it’s “his” money and he doesn’t want to let it go.

For years Miscavige has been promising that this year they will “eradicate psychiatry” from this planet.  And every single year, nothing happens.

And, this year, Miscavige, once again, is promising he will “complete the Super Power building and start delivering Super Power”.

So I’ll start with the easy predictions:

  • Still no 70 Ideal Orgs created,
  • Still no new AOSH orgs created on “every continent”,
  • Still no effect on psychiatry, and
  • Still no Super Power.

I found out that the official version of the Super Power building “promise”, apparently, is that they will start on the Super Power building this year.  Huh? For some of you, this may seem a bit of a WTF.  What is that big, ugly building across the street from the Fort Harrison if it isn’t the Super Power building?

That building is actually known as the “Flag Annex” by insiders.  The Super Power section of the building hasn’t been built.  Rumor has it that the design for the Super Power part of the building has been “settled”, but I doubt it.

However, the most important part of that huge, ugly building is not the Flag Annex part, nor is it the Super Power part.  No, the most important part of that building is David Miscavige’s Office.  This started out as part of one of that building’s massive floors, then half, and it now takes up almost an entire floor all by itself.  This is one of the main reasons it has taken so long — designing the largest, most luxurious, most secure single-person office this world has ever seen takes a long time!  Every few weeks, Miscavige rips up the plans for his office and demands a redesign.

It will never get built.  The Super Power building will never get opened — not the Flag Annex part, not the Super Power part and definitely not Miscavige’s office.

Some more obvious predictions:

  • Even more major media exposés of the church’s lies, crimes and abuses,
  • More Miscavige insanity and abuse,
  • More government investigations,
  • More Scientologists leaving, and
  • More Scientology celebrities leaving.  It will be fun to watch.

Everyone is wondering when certain mega-celebrities will officially leave.  We’ve seen Tom Cruise emphatically disassociating himself from the Church of Scientology, but when will he repair the damage by publicly quitting?

  • Miscavige will continue to personally direct the church’s “counter-attacks”, which will fail miserably and will, instead, make the Church of Scientology look even worse,
  • At which point Miscavige will declare “victory”, again.
  • David Miscavige will continue to live the lifestyle of a billionaire, while bankrupting and destroying the lives of the very few Scientologists left in the church.

Local churches will continue to close but, of course, secretly.  Miscavige must keep the façade up.  Since Miscavige has already “consolidated” all the orgs that were close to each other, he will have to find more creative ways to hide his org closings.

You might not know this but each Scientology org can be considered to be two orgs.  One, called “Day”, operates Monday through Friday during the day.  The other, called “Foundation”, operates evenings and weekends.  These two orgs obviously use the same building but operate separately, with separate staff and separate “stats”.

I expect many small orgs are already operating in Foundation-only mode.  All they need is one person to cover reception and the book store to give the appearance of still being open during Day hours.  I expect more and more orgs to go into this form of Foundation-only mode.

I also predict that more local orgs will sell their new, empty “Ideal Org” buildings once they realize they can’t afford it.  This will always be justified as “it didn’t meet our needs”, as Portland Org did recently.  I expect orgs to “expand” into cheaper quarters — while touting that as an “Ideal Org” move.

More and more orgs will have notices taped to their doors about unpaid utilities and unpaid rent but, since no one goes there any more, few will notice.

However, the main drama will center on the Independent Scientology movement. Tons of drama, but nothing much actually happening.  Newly-out Scientologists may land there, temporarily, with more news of abuse and crimes so it’s worth monitoring.

As long as the outside Scientology practitioners don’t implement the abusive and fraudulent parts of Scientology, and if they can stop lying about their results — we wish them well.

So those are my predictions for 2011.  The Church of Scientology will continue to collapse.  Miscavige will cover it up, and continue to make his stupid mistakes.

But, for the most part, the collapse of the Church of Scientology will be boring.  Sorry about that.

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27 Responses to Predictions 2011

  1. Anonymous says:

    Thanks, Bill. A couple of follow-up questions, if I may: since you're predicting Miscavige will be finding a need directing stepped-up "counter attacks," I'm wondering whether we might actually see him step forward and speak to the media, or at least prepare some canned video statements. In other words, do you predict Miscavige will become more of a public figure, or that he will further retreat into the shadows, perhaps echoing Hubbard's is-he-dead-or-alive status once he was on the run from prosecutors? My other question is: what specific lying have the independents been doing? (Besides generally saying that "the tech" is beneficial?)

  2. Just Bill says:

    Re: David Miscavige in publicOh, absolutely not! David Miscavige will never, ever willingly appear before major media. He understands that he cannot endure any questioning — he is appallingly stupid and a coward.Re: Independent Scientology liesI don't wish to infer that Independent Scientologists lie generally. I don't think they do and I certainly never said so.I specifically said "if they can stop lying about their results …". I don't know of any Scientology true believer who doesn't claim that they really, really, really do produce "real Releases, Clears and OTs".I call that lying, since no Scientologist exhibits the "Abilities Gained" for any Grade they've done, and no Scientologist exhibits the attributes Hubbard ascribed to "Clear", and no Scientologist is "Cause over matter, energy, space, time, life and thought" as promised for OT by Hubbard.As long as any Scientologist sells auditing promising the never-attained abilities for Release, Clear or OT, I call foul.If they sell auditing and only promise what they actually and provably deliver, I fully support their right to do so.

  3. Just Bill says:

    Re: Miscavige "going into hiding"He already is in hiding. His few "public appearances" are only in front of Scientologist believers, are very controlled and short. He does not mingle or take questions. At all other times, he is hiding.

  4. @ BillYou wrote…"We've seen Tom Cruise emphatically disassociating himself from the Church of Scientology"Could you elaborate a bit more on this? I was not aware of any friction between the two.

  5. Just Bill says:

    @The good old dogI am referring to various interviews during the last year or so where Tom Cruise adamantly refused to answer any questions about Scientology or discuss Scientology in any way. He has has gone from prize spokesperson to refusing to talk about it under any circumstances.I think that is incredibly revealing.Obviously, he knows that his association with Scientology destroyed his career. His next question needs to be "Where are all the powers and abilities I was promised?"

  6. Anonymous says:

    His next question needs to be "Where are all the powers and abilities I was promised?" you have an AMEN

  7. Anonymous says:

    Re: Tom Cruise.I don't think Cruise is disaffected. He went into dissemination mode overnight and stopped just as rapidly, this indicates that he was ordered "to do his part" until Miscavige realized that it was counterproductive. I've read someone mention on ESMB that Cruise was heard saying that he can't wait to take on "all those SPs" personally. That poor guy is lost, too far gone, and when the cult collapses, he'll need to be baby watched (by real professionals).

  8. Just Bill says:

    Re: Tom CruiseYes, I don't think Cruise is disaffected either. I'm sure his best-pal Miscavige told him "it's the SPs!"But Scientology dogma explicitly says all that negative stuff is "good", and to keep disseminating in the face of "attacks".And Cruise didn't.Cruise didn't follow Scientology dogma. He shut up. He didn't "confront and shatter" the SPs. He quit. He ran for cover.Why?I have assumed that he realized what a liability Scientology was to his career — that much was obvious to everyone else.What else would be behind his unconditional retreat? Did Miscavige tell him "Tommy, the SPs have won, give up"? I don't think so.So Tom Cruise has to be asking himself: Why didn't Scientology tech save him? Why are the "SPs" winning and Scientology failing? Why aren't all the Scientology OTs using their powers to save him and the church?

  9. Anonymous says:

    Re: Tom CruiseWell, I would never assume to know the mindset of a Scientologist better than you, but I thought that all Scios pretty much follow orders blindly, dogma or not. If Miscavige would tell his favorite tool that he (TC) needs to lay low because it's part of some big plan, I don't think Cruise would start an argument with "God". Just a thought.BTW: Article nice as usual. Hope everything pans out like you predicted.

  10. Anonymous says:

    Sorry Bill, I asked a question on the Questions page that is discussed fully above; just ignore it. I do hope your predictions come true – except the one about the boring end – but I'm afraid you'll be right about that too. It's not the popcorn I'll miss; it's the big flashy headlines telling the world how bogus and downright damaging Hubbard's little daydream is.

  11. Anonymous says:

    I'm puzzled. Wasn't Portland of a great Scientology victory back in 1985, when they managed to overturn a $37 million ruling against the church? And now the Portland org is downsizing? What happened?

  12. Just Bill says:

    Re: PortlandThat was the Lawrence Wollersheim case. The Church of Scientology got the damages reduced, not overturned, and eventually ended up paying $8.7 million.However, all that had absolutely nothing to do with the local Portland org. All the Scientologists who went to Portland were not paying public of Portland, they only came for the protests, not services.I do not have statistics, but Portland has always been a small org.

  13. Anonymous says:

    Dear Bill:Senior Policy states: "We always deliver what we promise"What if dm does not honor it?

  14. Just Bill says:

    Re: Deliver what we promiseFrom the real world view, failure to deliver what was promised, especially when money is involved, is fraud. While this is, apparently, acceptable in a "religion', when word gets out, you'll have a tough time recuiting new public.According to Scientology dogma, "Trouble spots occur only where there are 'no results.' attacks from governments or monopolies occur only where there are 'no results' or 'bad results.'" — LRHSo, from whichever viewpoint you choose, the consensus is that it causes trouble.That's obvious.But, really, what does Miscavige have to do with it? Do you think Releases, Clears and OTs were being produced before Miscavige took over?Miscavige's "improvement" to Scientology was to stop promising results. He started forcing Scientologists to pay huge amounts without promising any results at all — pure donations to his various scams.It seems obvious, in this case, that Hubbard was absolutely correct: There is a continuing boat-load of trouble for all Scientology because they promise, but never deliver, Release, Clear and OT. This isn't just Miscavige, is it?

  15. omnom says:

    Bill wrote: I do not have statistics, but Portland has always been a small org.If anyone has some specific history on the Portland scene, I'd love to hear it. I was under the impression that Portland was once booming due to the COSMOD folks (Martin Samuels, right?) that were subsequently hounded after the infamous conference in '82 and pretty much destroyed. Real SPs, those guys that sent lots of people up-lines and started the Delphian School in Sheridan…Even as Portland is not busy any time I've ever seen, I get the feeling that there's some big money still around. Two Ideal Org buildings on top of their "temporary" lease within the course of a couple of years? Hollander Consultants (now Silkin Management) and other WISE businesses in the area? There's some familiar names and top-of-the-bridge folks still around. The recently noticed mission (with bright blue neon sign) on Multnomah Blvd. has never ever been open the times I've seen it, nor is the Org obviously booming now, but Portland is still technically a CC, I think. I'm not sure if that's indicative of size or relative wealth, but something I always thought odd.Is there anyone reading here who can share any information about this Org or the surrounding activities, past or present? (Just a silly note, my CAPTCHA word was "innesses" which sounds so much like a Hubbard-defined word that actually I tried to look it up in the Tech Dictionary.)

  16. Strelnikov says:

    I would predict that possibly the Angry Gay Pope will end up in the clink because he has reposted an "anonymized" version of the Adelphi video that got him in trouble in the first place (the school called the cops and claimed the AGP was loitering; irony was that by the time the PD arrived, the AGP had already left!) The "church" would love to get rid of the Pope because he is a major irritant to the LA area orgs and missions….going up to Gold Base and Twin Peaks didn't help. He's pushing his luck, and Moxon has already gone on a legal fishing expedition with Mr. Myers.

  17. me says:

    I wantz moah dramah! Boring does not do it. Seriously, why were you all even taken in once. Sheesh.

  18. Just Bill says:

    @meSometimes dramah can be boring.Part of my purpose in doing Ask the Scientologist was to document how Scientology entraps perfectly sane, intelligent people (or people like me). I got in before the Internet and way before the leaks. The only thing I read and heard was what Scientology said.What they say and claim can be very compelling.Why people get into Scientology now I would be hard-pressed to explain.

  19. lunamoth says:

    "Why people get into Scientology now I would be hard-pressed to explain."This made me snort (as in laugh) – Exactly!!I read a moment ago that sci.'s official site now defines the word "scientology" as "study of the truth." That's pretty interesting, because I know for years that word meant "knowing how to know." Classic propaganda/thought-control move, this re-defining of words. The old definition empowers the scientologIST as the user of a tool (scientology). The new definition promotes the ideology to the level of gospel, and thereby places it above all else, exactly the way that God's word would be above opinions or ideas that you or I might have that disagree with it. Pretty damn big difference, don't you think? I wonder how many scientologists have noticed this, and how many of them get the significance of this redefined word.

  20. Just Bill says:

    @lunamothExcellent observation. Yes, Scientology is always about control and manipulating people by tricks like that.Tricksy Scientologists!

  21. Anonymous says:

    Dear Bill,Please forgive me for shouting:HEY SPORTS FANS!! CHECK OUT THE LATEST NEW YORKER!!Looks like we may have some fireworks after all!!!I'm sorry, that was cruel, but I couldn't resist. Have only started Lawrence Wright's article, but just about threw up to read that Paul Haggis sent his letter of resignation and his reasons for it to a lot of celebs whose names I am sick of reading, and NONE OF THEM got on board with him; they attacked him instead! GOD IN HEAVEN, DO ANY OF THESE PEOPLE HAVE BRAINS? WHAT ARE THEY, LITTLE BUNDLES OF BODY THETANS? I'll try to calm down now. Oh, such interesting things are coming to light; Davis's ridiculous lies, human trafficking, the FBI investigating… Maybe this is the day the facade cracks. I am so sick of this scam operation claiming to be a religion. What say you, Bill? Looking forward to your words of wisdom.

  22. Strelnikov says:

    Meanwhile, over at Esquire magazine one of the editors wants the press to go after the Catholics because (a.) they have more money and clout and (b.) said editor is an ex-Catholic. He doesn't seem to realize that if the government and the protestors can bring Scientology down it will scare the other religions into becoming more transparent. Despite all the sleaze that's been discovered in the Universal Church, cults seem to be far more controlling and personally damaging, even though most are rather small. Finally, the problems in churches don't end with the Catholics; there is a lot of sleaze in the Baptist, Mormon, and mainline Protestant churches very few people know about, though there are some sites like Conservative Babylon (www.conservativebabylon.com) that act as news agregators on this subject.

  23. Just Bill says:

    Re: The Apostate – the New YorkerThis is a fantastic trend. Bigger and bigger media outlets, magazines, newspapers and programs, are picking up the story and not letting it go.The New Yorker article sparked a whole lot of stories all around the world about the F.B.I. investigation of the church and Miscavige personally. The church has gone crazy and summoned all the troops to spam websites everywhere.And it did them no good at all, except attract more attention to the New Yorker and the FBI report.You could tell that the New Yorker was still a bit intimidated by the church's lawyers, but instead of avoiding the subject they did an incredible and thorough job of fact-checking. This left the church with no leg to stand on.This is the sign of how things will go from now on. The crimes, lies, abuse and fraud of the Church of Scientology will be reported and each time the evidence will be even better documented and even further verified.The nightmare for the church is just going to keep getting worse. Their per-policy defense ("always attack") does not work any more and they have no sane leadership to guide them out of their disaster. David Miscavige will only make it all much, much worse.I have to admit that I find the remaining true believers persistence in denying reality hard to understand any more. I'll have to write something about that.

  24. Just Bruce says:

    We are at the beginning of a new age of transparency. With the internet, wikileaks and other similar websites sure to appear in the coming years, it will be hard to keep suppressed malfeasance or other embarrassing secrets anymore.This fact is slowly dawning on the business world; various world governments are still trying to fight it yet eventually will probably come around after the next ten years of non-stop scandal weeds out the uber-corrupt.Trailing the pack in awareness of this new age of transparency is the Church of Scientology, and there is no sign that it understands that times are a changin'…

  25. Anonymous says:

    PredictionDavid Miscavige will add a Bow Tie to his wardrobe, In Honor of Louis FarrakhanLouis Farrakhan will announce its the mission of the Nation of Islam as Saviour's to CLEAR the planet.Farrakhan will also claim it was Master Farrard Muhammad who revealed Dianetics and Scientology as a revelation to Hubbard, and it was Hubbard who aided the Profit of God in the Creation of this New Technology and the Science of the Mind.Tom Cruise John Travolta and Kirstie Alley willhail this new revelation as the new gospel of Scientology.and all three will open a joint venture making and marketing bean pies.

  26. Anonymous says:

    News potential here – about 1000 signatures already.WHITE HOUSE PETITION TO INVESTIGATE THE CHURCH OF SCIENTOLOGY – PLEASE SIGN WHITE HOUSE PETITION TO INVESTIGATE THE CHURCH OF SCIENTOLOGYPLEASE SIGN THE WHITE HOUSE PETITION TO INVESTIGATE SCIENTOLOGY ABUSES, REQUEST EVERYONE YOU KNOW TO DO THE SAME, AND CROSS-POST THIS WHERE EVER YOU CAN.The White House has just introduced “a new way to petition the Obama Administration to take action” on many issues. If a petition receives 5,000 signatures within 30 days “it will be reviewed by the Administration and an official response will be issued. And we’ll make sure that the petition is sent to the appropriate policy makers in the Administration.” Click on https://wwws.whitehouse.gov/petitionsWe believe that we can accumulate at least 5,000 signatures within 30 days: from Anonymous, Independent Scientologists, Free Zoners, former Church of Scientology members, “the old guard of critics,” concerned citizens and others. Please help us do so by clicking on: Short URL: http://wh.gov/4Os and Save and Share this long URL: https://wwws.whitehouse.gov/petition…abuse/L27wg021

  27. Just Bill says:

    Re: PetitionI agree. I don't want to be a pessimist, but I'm not sure this will actually cause the government to do anything at all. However, it's always worthwhile to let the government know what we want.

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